IMF Forecasts India declining GDP as low as 4.8%

IMF Forecasts India declining GDP as low as 4.8%

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India’s GDP is declining at a worrying rate; latest news is coming from International Monetary Fund who predicted the growth rate to be as low as 4.8%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced India's economic growth forecast to 4.8% for the current fiscal year. The decline is due to the crisis in the non-banking financial sector (NBFC) and weak rural demand. It has also cut the world's growth estimate. IMF projected India’s GDP growth to be 6.1%, which was recently slashed to 4.8% for this fiscal year, citing a sharper-than-expected slowdown in local demand and stress in the non-bank financial sector.

Listing decline in rural demand growth and an overall credit sluggishness for lowering of India forecasts, IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath however said the growth momentum should improve next year due to factors like positive impact of corporate tax rate reduction. Global growth, estimated at 2.9 per cent in 2019, is projected to increase to 3.3 per cent in 2020 and inch up further to 3.4 per cent in 2021," the IMF said while releasing an update to its World Economic Outlook (WEO).

Key points to the growth and GDP estimates for the fiscal year

  • India's economy grew just 4.5 per cent in July-September 2019 period -the weakest pace in nearly six years. The Indian government has been taking various measures to bolster growth.
  • For the emerging market and developing economy group, the IMF said growth is expected to increase to 4.4 per cent in 2020 and 4.6 per cent in 2021 (0.2 percentage point lower for both years than in the October WEO) from an estimated 3.7 per cent in 2019.
  • Gita Gopinath, IMF’s chief economist also stated that the pickup in global growth for 2020 remains highly uncertain as it relies on improved growth outcomes for stressed economies like Argentina, Iran and Turkey, and for underperforming emerging and developing economies such as Brazil, India and Mexico.
  • The IMF projected India's economy to grow by 5.8% next year. It also forecasts the economy to grow by 6.5% in 2021-22.
  • In its report, the IMF stated that global growth is projected to rise from an estimated 2.9 percent in 2019 to 3.3 percent in 2020 and 3.4 percent for 2021, a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point for 2019 and 2020 and 0.2 for 2021 compared to those in the October World Economic Outlook (WEO).

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